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Sabtu, 05 September 2009

The Art of War “Sun Tzu” Terrain



The Art of War “Sun Tzu” 
Terrain

"Topography or conformation of the ground."


Market Analysis


"We may be able to distinguish six kinds of terrain: accessible ground, entangling ground, temporizing ground, narrow passes, precipitous heights, positions at a great distance from the enemy."


Portfolio Management and Risk Management Corollary
One way of viewing our perception of the "terrain" or "ground" of the markets is to liken us to an experienced river traveler exploring and mapping uncharted wilderness inhabited by hostile people. And to liken market price movements to the river we are utilizing as our main conveyance through that wilderness.
We can look back through our charts, records, and other "profiling" data and see where we have traveled, and observe the obstructions that have caused the river to change its course and speed and, likewise, have caused us to leave the river and portage around unsafe stretches. We would also be able to review our skirmishes with the hostiles, both on the river and during the portages.

It is through these experiences that we gain a sense of the character and "profile" of the river (each market's price movement) and its response pattern(s) to the country (conditions and events that influence price movement) through which it is moving.
These experiences also enhance our understanding of our vulnerability to the river and the hostile intent of the inhabitants, as well as our ability to make constructive use of the river in pursuing our objectives. However, given the inevitable twists and turns all rivers take and the inclement weather conditions (fog, etc.) we are obliged to travel through, we cannot always see where the river is going to carry us, or the movement of the hostile forces.

Therefore, our perception of the impending terrain and hostile action, and the concomitant impact on the shaping of our strategies and tactics will, to some degree, be influenced by what our experience and ability to understand the current behavior of the river tells us.


The character of the movement of the river, in and of itself, will provide some insight into the terrain through which we are traveling, whether we can see the terrain or not.
Sometimes, that will be all we have to rely on in preparing our travel plans and defenses against hostile attack.

Suitability Of Strategies And Tactics To Situation


"Ground that can be freely traversed by both sides is called accessible. With ground of this nature, beat the enemy in occupying the raised and sunny spots, and carefully guard your line of supplies. Then you will be able to fight with advantage."


"Ground that can be abandoned but is hard to reoccupy is called entangling. From a position of this sort, if the enemy is unprepared, you may sally forth and defeat him. But if the enemy is prepared for your coming, and you fail to defeat him, then, return being impossible, disaster will ensue."


"When the position is such that neither side will gain by making the first move, it is called temporizing ground, and the situation remains at a deadlock. In a position of this sort, even though the enemy should offer an attractive bait, it will be advisable not to stir forth, but rather to retreat, thus enticing the enemy in his turn; then, when part of his army has come out, you may deliver your attack with advantage."


"With regard to narrow passes, if you can occupy them first, let them be strongly garrisoned and await the advent of the enemy. Should the enemy forestall you in occupying a pass, do not go after him if the pass is fully garrisoned, but only if it is weakly garrisoned."


"With regard to precipitous heights, if you precede your adversary, occupy the raised and sunny spots, and there wait for him to come up. Remember, if the enemy has occupied precipitous heights before you, do not follow him, but retreat and try to entice him away."


"With regard to positions at a great distance from the enemy, if the strength of the two armies is equal, it is not easy to provoke a battle, and fighting will be to your disadvantage."


Portfolio Management and Risk Management Corollary
Manage resources to be consistent with the phase, pattern, and volatility of the market.


Pre-position with options.


Control catastrophic loss risk through money management.

Avoid struggling to get into a trade.


Trade only when there is a leveragable advantage, ie, for every dollar of risk, make sure there is the realistic potential for a predetermined multiple reward.


Competent Management

"Sometimes an army is exposed to calamities, not arising from natural causes, but from faults for which the general is responsible. These are: flight; insubordination; collapse; ruin; disorganization; rout."


Portfolio Management and Risk Management Corollary
Establish, maintain, and continually strengthen the philosophical fiber that holds the elements and substance of our portfolio management and risk management approach together regardless of the nature of our immediate circumstances, whether they be prosperous or poor, favorable or unfavorable, difficult or easy.


Develop And Maintain An "Edge"


"Other conditions being equal, if one force is hurled against another ten times its size, the result will be the flight of the former."


Portfolio Management and Risk Management Corollary
Always endeavor to be the superior force, at minimum, through focused knowledge and experience.


Balanced Diversification

"When the common soldiers are too strong and their officers too weak, the result is insubordination."


"When the officers are too strong and the common soldiers too weak, the result is collapse."


Portfolio Management and Risk Management Corollary
Maintain balance in resource management and diversification in risk positions.


Disciplined Organization
"When the higher officers are angry and insubordinate, and on meeting the enemy give battle on their own account from a feeling of resentment, before the commander in chief can tell whether or not he is in a position to fight, the result is ruin.

Portfolio Management and Risk Management Corollary
Be disciplined in the use of all portfolio management and risk management resources at all times.


Remain unemotional in all situations.
Tetap tanpa emosi dalam segala situasi.

Clear Communication


"When the general is weak and without authority; when his orders are not clear and distinct; when there are no fixed duties assigned to officers and men, and the ranks are formed in a slovenly, haphazard manner, the result is utter disorganization."


Portfolio Management and Risk Management Corollary
Ensure clear communication in all aspects of the development, testing, and implementation of strategy and tactics.


Be disciplined in the use of all portfolio management and risk management resources at all times.


Preserve And Protect Resources


"When a general, unable to estimate the enemy's strength, allows an inferior force to engage a larger one, or hurls a weak detachment against a powerful one, and neglects to place picked soldiers in the front rank, the result must be a rout."


Portfolio Management and Risk Management Corollary
Always endeavor to be the superior force, at minimum, through focused knowledge and experience.


Manage resources to be consistent with the phase, pattern, and volatility of the market.

Catastrophic Loss Avoidance

"These are the six ways of courting defeat -- neglect to estimate the enemy's strength; want of authority; defective training; unjustifiable anger; nonobservance of discipline; failure to use picked men -- all of which must be carefully noted by the general who has attained a responsible post."


"The natural formation of the country is the soldier's best ally; but a power of estimating the adversary, of controlling the forces of victory, and of shrewdly calculating difficulties, dangers, and distances, constitutes the test of a great general. He who knows these things, and in fighting puts his knowledge into practice, will win his battles. He who knows them not, nor practices them, will surely be defeated."


Portfolio Management and Risk Management Corollary
"Profile" all you can learn about each market being traded.
Ensure clear communication in all aspects of the development, testing, and implementation of strategy and tactics.


Continuously improve focused knowledge and experience.


Remain unemotional in all situations.

Be disciplined in the use of all portfolio management and risk management resources at all times.


Suit strategies and tactics to phase, section, pattern, swing level, and volatility of market.

Stay Focused On Achieving Strategic Objectives

"The general who advances without coveting fame and retreats without fearing disgrace, whose only thought is to protect his country and do good service for his sovereign, is the jewel of the kingdom."


Portfolio Management and Risk Management Corollary
Keep attention and actions focused on achieving strategic objectives within reasonable time frames, and with minimal loss or expenditure of resources.

Focused Knowledge And Experience

"If we know that our own men are in a condition to attack, but are unaware that the enemy is not open to attack, we have gone only halfway toward victory. If we know that the enemy is open to attack, but are unaware that our own men are not in a condition to attack, we have gone only halfway toward victory. If we know that the enemy is open to attack, and also know that our men are in a condition to attack, but are unaware that the nature of the ground makes fighting impracticable, we have still gone only halfway toward victory. The experienced soldier, once in motion, is never bewildered; once he has broken camp, he is never at a loss. Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, your victory will not stand in doubt; if you know Heaven and know Earth, you may make your victory complete."


Portfolio Management and Risk Management Corollaries
Have a sound portfolio management and risk management philosophy and money management discipline, and know them thoroughly.


Have an analytic framework that allows for timely evaluation and measurement of market activity (represents collective action of other traders).


Once an opportunity has been identified, a strategy has been selected, and tactics have been decided on, implement promptly and without hesitation.
[sumber;strategies-tactics.com.suntzu-rul]

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